Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Forest Ecosystems

Table 1 Management scenarios used to drive simulations of forest development with MASSIMO adapted from Stadelmann et al. (2016)

5 scenarios	Specifications and MASSIMO implementation
Business as usual (BAU)	Harvest approximated to NFI3–4b observations resulting in increasing growing stock in Jura, Pre-Alps, Alps and Southern Alps and decreasing growing stock in the Plateau.
Business as usual (BAU)	Recommended conifer proportion as per NaiS
Constant growing stock	Harvest is increased or decreased to maintain a constant growing stock as observed in NFI4b (2013) in all production regions.
Constant growing stock	Recommended conifer proportion as per NaiS
High increment	Reduction of growing stock to 300 m³·ha⁻¹ until 2046, then constant growing stock with the aim to increase increment in the long-term, while minimizing possible short- to medium-term reductions in increment.
High increment	Recommended conifer proportion as per NaiS
Conifers	Promotion of conifers to meet future increases in the demand for construction wood. Reduction of growing stock to 300 m³·ha⁻¹ until 2046, then increase to 300–330 m³·ha^− 1, depending on region.
Conifers	Maximum conifer proportion as per NaiS
Energy	Maximized timber production to meet the increasing demands for energy wood and wood-based chemicals. Target diameters were assumed to be little important. Growing stock reduction until 2046 to 200 m³·ha⁻¹ in the Plateau, 250 m³·ha^− 1 in the Jura, the Pre-Alps, Valais, South of the Alps and 300 m³·ha^− 1 in the Alps without Valais, then constant growing stock.
Energy	Recommended conifer proportion as per NaiS