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Table 4 Different statistics derived from model validation compared with the metrics from the original model fit calculated for the 777 records of the validation runs. Metrics of the confusion matrix were calculated by applying a cutpoint of 0.433

From: Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany

  Sensitivity Specificity Accuracy AUC Prediction error
(5% percentile) Mean (95% percentile)
validation 0.534 0.955 0.907 0.871 (−0.394) –0.016 (0.596)
model fit 0.659 0.964 0.929 0.926 (−0.344) –0.017 (0.471)