Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany

Forest Ecosystems

Table 4 Different statistics derived from model validation compared with the metrics from the original model fit calculated for the 777 records of the validation runs. Metrics of the confusion matrix were calculated by applying a cutpoint of 0.433

	Sensitivity	Specificity	Accuracy	AUC	Prediction error
	Sensitivity	Specificity	Accuracy	AUC	(5% percentile) Mean (95% percentile)
validation	0.534	0.955	0.907	0.871	(−0.394) –0.016 (0.596)
model fit	0.659	0.964	0.929	0.926	(−0.344) –0.017 (0.471)