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Table 3 Model statistics of the stepwise selection process, calculated from predictions employing the full models including fixed and random effects, as well as predictions using fixed effects only (right part of the table). For comparison, the optimal cutpoints that were derived for the full models were also employed for the fixed effects predictions

From: Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany

  Model Cutpoint Predictions based on fixed and random effects Predictions based on fixed effects only
Sensitivity Specificity Accuracy Auc Sensitivity Specificity Accuracy AUC
4.4 πij = h(β0 ecoregion + fecoregion(j) + bi) 0.439 0.568 0.973 0.906 0.930 0.316 0.954 0.848 0.831
4.5 πij = h(β0 ecoregion + fecoregion(j) + β1pesticideij + bi) 0.422 0.604 0.967 0.906 0.930 0.316 0.957 0.850 0.836
4.6 πij = h(β0 ecoregion + fecoregion(j) + β1pesticideij + f1(prec_pupaij+ bi) 0.427 0.596 0.966 0.904 0.915 0.467 0.927 0.850 0.850
4.7 πij = h(β0 ecoregion + fecoregion(j) + β1pesticideij + f1(prec_pupaij) + f2(tmin_imagoij) + bi) 0.433 0.586 0.966 0.903 0.924 0.446 0.945 0.862 0.860