Fig. 5

Predicted contribution of annual ACS changes in three contrasted climate scenarios: Wet, Dry and Dry++ climates are defined with standardized covariates C _DROUGHT and C _WATER respectively set to [-2,1,2] and [2,0,0]. Dry++ refer to an extremely-dry climate (very high seasonal drought in the dry season, medium soil water saturation in the rain season). The white line is the net annual ACS recovery, i.e. the sum of all annual ACS changes: survivors’ ACS growth Sg and loss Sl, new recruits’ ACS Rr and recruits’ ACS growth Rg and loss Rl. Dotted lines are out of the calibration period (0–30 year). Maximum-likelihood predictions for ACS stocks (bottom-right) are projected within their credibility intervals (areas with higher levels of transparency